Sunday, April 30, 2017
 

Objective 1

Earth System Models for seasonal to centennial predictions and projections at regional to global scales.   

NOAA will improve the skill of seasonal forecasts and delivery of information products (e.g., predictions, projections) for decadal to centennial time scales with quantified uncertainties. Additionally, NOAA will improve regional outlooks through downscaling approaches, high-resolution global climate model runs, multi-model ensembles, and better representation of key physical and biogeochemical processes, including ocean dynamics, with specification and quantification of uncertainties. Failing to fill the various modeling gaps in key physical and biogeochemical processes risks leaving decision makers with insufficient scientific support concerning future climate states. Improved information will enable decision makers to properly address regional and local planning for the impacts of flooding and drought, declining air quality, siting of critical infrastructure in coastal communities, and managing natural resources with changing conditions of our oceans and other ecosystems.

R&D Targets:

  • Develop higher-resolution coupled-climate models
  • Develop a prototype decadal climate prediction system
  • Develop sound modeling downscaling techniques for climate applications for multiple regional spatial and temporal scales, including an embedded and nested regional Earth system projection capability
  • Develop models of greenhouse gases, atmospheric aerosols (including black carbon), and aerosol interactions that yield uncertainty in climate sink quantification and effects on climate forcing
  • Perform prototype modeling of climate-stratospheric chemistry interconnections
  • Develop models simulating the ocean biogeochemical systems and ocean climatic impacts at resolutions of 3-5 km
  • Assess predictability and predictive skill for global experimental decadal-scale predictions that account for natural variability and the climate-forcing agents  
  • Develop an intraseasonal to interannual prediction system that builds on the currently experimental real-time National Multi-Model Ensemble system and incorporates advances in statistical methodologies and forecast initialization
  • Develop seasonal outlooks and decadal to multidecadal projections of climate-related changes in U.S. ocean regions including projections for regional sea-level change